The Rural Development Administration’s WISE Is Not an “Early Warning” System... It Is a Platform for Looking at Water Conditions Over Decades

To determine how severe a drought may become, or which fields may be submerged, a country must first understand how water moves within its own territory. Countries with observation networks and the personnel and budgets to run models can perform those calculations on their own. The problem lies with countries that cannot. Although they suffer the greatest impacts of climate change, they remain unable to create the very data that would serve as a starting point for judgment, leaving them in a difficult position when trying to establish policies or request international financing.

WISEA&M, developed by the Rural Development Administration together with Texas, University and Ghana’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research-Crops Research Institute(CSIR-CRI) ‘WISE’(WISE, Water, Impact, and Sustainability Estimator) is a platform designed to target that gap. It divides the globe into 88 basins and calculates the entire water-cycle process in units of about 1km grids, providing drought and flood information for 218 countries worldwide·. Its output variables include precipitation·evapotranspiration·runoff·soil moisture and more than 40 other types of data, and it is fully available on the web, without membership registration or fees(wise.tamu.edu).

WISE was loaded into the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification2026 on August 8 20(UNCCD) Drought Toolbox(Drought Toolbox). The Rural Development Administration explained that this was the first case in which an outcome of its own international cooperation project was included on an international convention platform. The inclusion came on the occasion of the17th Conference of the Parties(COP17, August 17~28) held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia). That day, the Rural Development Administration hosted an official side event during the conference and introduced WISE to delegations from various countries. At the side event, Agricultural Researcher Jeon Sang-min presented the development progress, and Professor Chung Jae-hak of TexasA&M University demonstrated the key functions.

Researcher Jeon, who has been in charge of development, has been on work assignment at Texas2026 since July 7 through this coming December at12 A&M University, the joint development institution. The interview with him, while he is staying there, was conducted in writing. Before answering, Researcher Jeon corrected the perception of WISE as an‘early warning platform’, saying it is“not a system that alerts people to disasters a few hours, or a few days later, but a platform that supports policymaking by analyzing climate trends over decades”. The following is a summary of the Q&A with him. 

It targets the data gap in countries with neither observation networks nor personnel

Q. What was the background behind developing WISE.
“It is a platform that analyzes changes in water-cycle trends over decades and provides data that countries can use as a basis when establishing policies to respond to climate change. Everyone knows that such data is needed. The question is whether it can be produced. To build and calibrate a global hydrological model, substantial computing resources and expert personnel accumulated over a long period are necessary. Advanced countries, including Korea, already have these capacities and conduct the analyses they need on their own. By contrast, countries without observation networks, or the personnel and budgets to operate models, cannot create the data that would serve as the starting point for judgment.

The Rural Development Administration has repeatedly confirmed this problem through long-standing international cooperation in agricultural technology with many countries. Sophisticated forecasting technology is also needed, but what must come first is a minimal basis for estimating how water conditions in one’s own country will change in the future. That is why, in 2023 11, we launched a joint project with TexasA&M University, and Ghana’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research-Crops Research Institute(CSIR-CRI).

The design was set in two stages from the beginning. 1The first stage is to allow any country to obtain basic-level information using only global data, which is the stage now being serviced. 2The second stage is to reflect observation data from countries with demand into the model to create much more precise data and directly support policymaking. The structure lays down a baseline for everyone and then raises precision together where needed first, and we plan to continue it through follow-up projects.”

Hydrological simulation rather than satellite indices…SWAT+ calculates the entire water-cycle process

Q. How is it different from existing drought and flood prediction systems.
“We first need to clarify the comparison target. Early warning systems that notify users of disasters a few days later based on weather forecasts and WISE exist on different levels. On that premise, there are three points of differentiation.

First, it is based on hydrological simulation rather than observation(simulation) . Most existing global drought information turns satellite images or meteorological observations into indices, so it tells you‘whether it is dry now’, but cannot answer‘how much water remains underground and how it will change going forward’. WISE directly calculates the entire water-cycle process using(ARS) SWAT+, the latest version of the watershed-scale hydrology and water-quality model developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service·SWAT+, producing values even in regions with insufficient observation stations.

Second, 40 or more hydrological and environmental variables come from the same water-balance calculation·. Therefore, droughts and floods can be handled together on the same standard rather than being divided into separate systems. In the field, the two disasters appear alternately in the same region within a single year.

Third, there is no threshold for use. Hydrological modeling requires three things: data, computing resources, and personnel who know how to handle them. If even one is missing, analysis cannot begin, and the countries that need the information most are usually in that situation. WISE is structured so that we shoulder that burden instead. Users simply open the webpage, select their country or basin on the map, and read the results.”

 Glaciers·groundwater·and dam operations are excluded…limitations were also disclosed at the conference

Q. What level of accuracy does it have. It also seems likely to have limitations.
“Here, prediction is not about the accuracy of forecasting the weather a few days later, but about how reliably long-term trends can be reproduced. So we conducted dual verification using two types of data with different characteristics. We verified the water balance of entire basins using global river-flow observation data, and verified soil evaporation and vegetation growth using satellite evapotranspiration data. Because we judged that data comparison alone was insufficient, we carried out simulations for Ghana and Thailand and reviewed the results together with local researchers, receiving confirmation that the results were understandable in light of their countries’ water conditions.
We also stated the limitations as they are at this conference. Accuracy declines in the Arctic and hyper-arid regions where glacier·snowfall·and snowmelt processes are not reflected, groundwater has not yet been calibrated, and river flow is based on natural flow that does not reflect dam·or reservoir operations. At the conference, there was also a request to raise the resolution for small countries. These are limitations arising from simulating the entire globe under one standard, and therefore what is currently provided is closer to broad regional tendencies than to values tailored for each country. If the observation data held by each country is reflected, accuracy can be greatly improved for that country.”

Inclusion is not official endorsement, but a starting point…2 years of preparation to open a channel

Q. What does it mean that Korea led the effort, UNCCD and how was inclusion in the UNCCD achieved.
“The RDA decided what to create, why to create it, and led the entire project. TexasA&M University handled the implementation technology, and Ghana’s CSIR-CRI handled field verification. Global hydrological models themselves already existed academically, but making them into a form that policymakers in developing countries can actually use is an entirely different matter. Who is the platform for, which variables should be shown and in what units, and how far agricultural water management, including paddy fields, should be reflected. The RDA made these decisions. It was also our role to publicize the completed results to the international community and help them take root. Creating a good platform and making it actually used are separate tasks, and the RDA designed and executed the latter.
There was nearly 2 years of preparation before inclusion. UNCCD We had been discussing ways with Mark Svoboda, director of the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center(SPI), which has participated in the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface(NDMC) (Mark Svoboda) , and in, 2026 we held two meetings with UNCCD Chief Scientist Dr. Barron OrrUNCCD , and Dr. Daniel Tsegai, who is in charge of the drought field. At those meetings, we received positive evaluations of the technical completeness and potential for development, which led to inclusion.
However, inclusion does not immediately mean official endorsement. The Toolbox has the character of guiding users to various data and platforms, and for WISE results to be used in actual policy documents, another round of verification suited to that country’s conditions is needed. I see inclusion not as achieving a goal, but as a starting point. If inquiries come in from interested countries, we can continue into collaboration that reflects those countries’ observation data together and creates much more accurate policy evidence. Inclusion opened that channel.” 

Q. How will it be applied in the field in developing countries.

“The place where it can be applied immediately is in national-level policymaking processes. These include judgments such as which regions should receive priority investment in irrigation facilities, which basins will face long-term water shortages, and what evidence should be included in adaptation plans. Without building a separate system or securing a separate budget, countries can check water-cycle conditions and future outlooks across their entire territory simply by accessing the web. It is sufficient as reference material to place on the table together at the initial stage of discussing directions for climate-change adaptation. For countries that want it, we can reflect their own flow·weather·and soil data to raise precision, and also provide support by working together so that local research institutions can interpret the results.

At this conference, demand from several institutions was confirmed. The U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center expressed its intention to connect us with African countries with which it is collaborating, and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas(ICARDA) proposed a joint project in North Africa using WISE. With Thailand’s Asian Institute of Technology(AIT), we discussed local demonstration, and with the Fiji government delegation, we discussed demand for cooperation with island countries. We are still at the stage of sharing directions and plan to make them concrete as follow-up projects. The most practical lesson from this conference is that dissemination cannot be achieved through functional advancement alone, and support for newly participating countries must necessarily proceed in parallel.”

 Domestically, the early warning service, internationally, WISE

Q. Are there plans to link it with farm-level services in Korea.

“No. WISE is a platform that analyzes climate trends over decades and helps countries establish long-term adaptation policies, so both its time scale and purpose are different from farm-level early warning. And in Korea, that role is already handled by the‘Agricultural Weather Disaster Early Warning Service’ operated by the RDA. It reanalyzes the Korea Meteorological Administration’s neighborhood forecast(5×5km) and provides weather-disaster information and response guidelines at the farm level(30×30m), including 11 types of weather information and·high-temperature damage·low-temperature damage·drought·wet injury and other disaster-prediction information, up to 15 types for as many as 9 days ahead. It currently calculates and informs users of disaster risks by parcel in 155 cities and counties nationwide, and since 2024 9 it has been opened without requiring membership registration. Countries like Korea that have observation networks and modeling capabilities can produce better results using their own data. What WISE seeks to fill is the gap in countries that lack such conditions. It is accurate to view the structure as the early warning service handling domestic needs, and WISE handling the international community.” 

Q. What are the plans and final goal going forward.

“Listening to the opinions of officials from each country at the conference made it clear that demand is shifting from information provision to policy use. The point was repeatedly raised that while the scientific information is sufficient, it is difficult to use directly in policy. There are three directions for advancement. 88They are recalibrating the basin simulation system and fusing satellite observation data to raise accuracy, increasing indicators that policy can read directly, such as the Composite Drought Index·integrating meteorological, agricultural·and hydrological drought(CDI), and helping interpret results with artificial intelligence(AI).

AI’s role is not real-time prediction. Hydrological model results are difficult to read unless one is an expert, but the people who actually need that information are mostly policymakers. We intend to develop functions that interpret what the simulation results mean for a country, organize national-level risk scenarios into reports, and provide them in multiple languages. The section where what a physical model has calculated is transferred into human judgment, that is the gap AI would fill. I do not think it is up to us to decide what indicators are needed. Only when users say they need them do they become useful indicators, and inclusion in the Toolbox has created a channel to receive those demands.

The final goal is clear. It is to ensure that no country lacks evidence for climate-change response policies simply because it has no data. Climate-change adaptation is ultimately a question of what, when, and where to invest, and such judgments require evidence. Narrowing the gap between countries that can produce evidence on their own and those that cannot, that is what WISE aims to do.”

Researcher Jeon Sang-min=Ph.D. in Regional Systems Engineering from Seoul National University, formerly a research professor at Seoul National University, 2023 appointed as an agricultural researcher at the Rural Development Administration in February 2. Currently affiliated with the Climate Change Response Division of the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, and on work assignment at Texas 2026 from July 7 to December 12 at U.S. Texas A&M University.